Morning Update: 12/18/2012

Indices Close Strong

The stock market indices started the week off with a bang. They ran up sharply from the get-go, and within minutes they hit their overhead resistance and backed off. The Nasdaq 100 came back much sharper because Apple Inc. (AAPL) was down on the session early on and then reversed. That helped the indices in a beautiful, 5-wave rally intraday, closing at the highs for the day going away on a big spike in the afternoon, particularly in the last half hour when they exploded.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 102.83 at 13,237.38. The S&P 500 was up 16.92 at 1439.50. The Nasdaq 100 was up 36.17 at 2654.26.

Advance-declines were 2 to 1 positive on theNew York Stock Exchange, and 2 1/2 to 1 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 5 to 1 positive on New York, with total volume of 625 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.85 billion, which is big volume, and had a 2 to 1 positive volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were up sharply at the get-go, pulled back sharply but held. They ran very hard midday, only to pull back quite sharply in the afternoon, held support, and then exploded into the close as short covering took over. Although the indices closed near 1431 S&P 500 and 2664-5 zone NDX, both of which are resistance levels, it sure looks positive for more upside going forward as the S&P 500 held its major trend line over the last few weeks.

We’ll see how it goes on tomorrow.

Good Trading!

 

Leaders

 

InternalsInstitutionalAverages

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Morning Update: 12/5/2012

Indices Close Lower but Substantially Off Lows

The stock market indices ended down on the day, substantially off the morning lows. They were actually in the plus column with an hour to go, but failed and faded in the last hour.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 13.90 at 12,951.71, 13 points off the low and 70 points off the high. The S&P 500 was down 2.42 at 1407.04, 4 points off the low and about 6 off high. The Nasdaq 100 was down 3.95 at 2667.89, 15 points off the low and 7 off the high.

Advance-declines were slightly negative by 100 issues on theNew York Stock Exchange, and 125 issues on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was slightly negative on New York, and slightly negative on Nasdaq as well.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were down sharply by late morning. They rallied back and pulled back to retest, and made lower lows on the S&P 500 but not on the NDX. That contributed to an afternoon 3-wave rally that failed, and they rolled over into the close.

It was not too bad of a day, and many of our stocks were up today. Let’s see what happens tomorrow.

 

Leaders

Averages

Institutional

Wednesday, December 5

Economics
07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
08:15 ADP Employment Change – consensus 130K, prior 158K
08:30 Nonfarm Productivity – consensus 2.7%, prior 1.9%
08:30 Unit Labor Costs – consensus -0.9%, prior -0.1%
10:00 Factory Orders – consensus 0.0%, prior 4.8%
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite – consensus 53.5, prior 54.2
11:00 Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5.25b Treasuries in 6 to 8-year notes
00:30 AUD GDP
01:45 CNY HSBC Services PMI
08:45 EUR Eurozone PMI Services
09:30 GBP PMI Services
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales
20:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision
9:30 Spain to sell debt
11:30 Germany to sell EU4b 2-year notes

Earnings
After:
Finisar (FNSR)

There were no significant economic releases on Tuesday. On Wednesday we will get the ADP employment report, Factory orders, the ISM non manufacturing number and oil inventories.

12/4/2012-Morning Update

Indices Roll Over After Big Up-Gaps

The stock market indices started off the week on a negative note, although they started off the session with big gaps to the upside, especially on Nasdaq 100. The NDX actually went to new rally highs to just under 2700 at 2695.04. That resistance proved formidable as they rolled over the rest of the session in a down channel, closing near the session lows.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 59.98 at 12,965.60, 122 points off the high. The S&P 500 was down 6.72 at 1409.46, a point off the low. The Nasdaq 100 was down 6.04 at 2671.84.

So all of these reversed and closed near the session lows going away.

Advance-declines were 3 to 2 negative on the New York Stock Exchange, and 13 to 11 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 2 to 1 negative on New York, with total volume of 638 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.6-7 billion and had a little less that 2 to 1 negative volume ratio.

Morning Update: 11/20/2012

Monster Day, Great Technicals

Net on the day, the Dow was up 207.34 at 12,795.65. The S&P 500 was up 26.99 at 1386.27. The Nasdaq 100 closed up 61.67 at 2595.83, just a point off the high.

Advance-declines were 8 to 1 positive, with 2700 up and 359 down on the New York Stock Exchange, and 4 to 1 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 15 to 1 positive on New York, with total volume of 678 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.7 billion and had a 7 to 1 positive volume ratio.

It was a monster day on Wall Street as the stock market indices gapped up, and just kept running all day in stair-step fashion, including a late spurt into the close to leave the S&P 500 at the session highs going away into the bell, up nearly 27 points.

It was quite a big day for Wall Street and an important technical day as the key declining topsline and moving averages were broken and closed above, with the NDX and S&P 500 near the highs for the day going away.

It was a spectacular session to start the week and an important day technical.

We’ll see how it goes on tomorrow.

Averages

 

Leaders

 

Institutional

Morning Update: 11/12/2012

Tainted Rally With Weak Afternoon Action

The stock market indices had an interesting but volatile day today, coming off oversold oscillator readings. The indices bounced from the get-go and retested. When they held, the indices took off in a strong rally, which peaked out just before noon, with the NDX having jumped from 2572 to 2610, a 38-point jump. The S&P 500, at that point, jumped from 1373 to early 1392, about 19 points. So that was a nice, strong rally, but they sold off very quickly and gave back a .618 Fibonacci retracement by early afternoon. They then snapped back and then did another .618 Fibonacci retracement to test the declining topsline, but rolled over again. Although they did bounce a few minutes before the close, in the last 10 minutes they sold off again to the afternoon low and near support to close only very modestly higher.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 4.07 at 12,815.39, 75 points off the high and about the same amount off the low. The S&P 500 was up 2.34 at 1379.84, 12 points off its high and 6 points off its low. The Nasdaq 100 was up 11.53 at 2584.10, about 26 points off its high and 13 points off its low.

So it was a kind of mixed, sloppy, volatile day, and the indices managed to eke out a gain, although technical were flat to slightly lower

Advance-declines were 15 to 14 negative on the New YorkStock Exchange, and only 23 issues higher on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was a tad higher on New York and Nasdaq had a little lower volume ratio.

Basically, it was a net-net flat session with the technicals across the board, and today was not the best rally indeed.

On the downside, there were no stocks down as much as a point today, other than Amazon, which we mentioned above.

So it was not that bad from a loss standpoint, but it was a tainted rally with weak afternoon action.

We’ll see how it goes on Monday.

 

Morning Update: 11/9/2012

Very Nasty Day on Wall Street

 

The stock market indices had a very rough session. Futures were up before the opening, and the indices did firm a few minutes into the opening, but then rolled over and were down steadily and sharply all session in 45-degree-angle, declining channels. At the end of the day, the indices rolled over after a late-afternoon rally attempt and consolidation failed. They then rolled over hard, especially the S&P 500, into the close, which dropped 5 points in the last 5 minutes.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 121.41 at 12,811.32. The S&P 500 was down 17.02 at 1377.51, at the exact low for the day and 24 points off its high. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 40.12 to 2572.57, just a few cents off its low.

It was another nasty day on Wall Street, following up with yesterday’s post-election decline.

Advance-declines were 22 to 8 negative on the New YorkStock Exchange, and 3 to 1 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 5 to 1 negative on New York, with total volume of 745 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.4 billion and had a 7 to 2 negative volume ratio

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were up for a brief period in the morning, rolled over in a beautiful, parallel, down channel all session on both indices, only to be interrupted a couple times by rally attempts, which failed at declining moving averages and overhead resistance. Simply, we’ve come down hard and fast and is now on the Nasdaq 100 near the bottom of a major declining channel and getting oversold.

I’m not sure if we’re oversold yet, but another day or two of this, and we’ll be out of power. Expect some kind of rally. We are at a cycle low at this point, projected to be Nov 9, which is tomorrow.

We’ll see how it goes.

 

Morning Update: 11/8/2012

Very Negative Post-Election Session

The stock market indices got creamed today following the elections last night. They had big gaps down at the opening, and very, very sharp sell-offs into late morning when they reached their session lows just above 2600 on the NDX and near 1388 on the S&P 500. That breakdown, below 1403 S&P 500, was a key break that could lead to much lower levels . We are very concerned. They did rally back in stair-step fashion in a 5-wave rally that took the NDX from 2602 to 2629. The S&P 500 at that point had rallied from the morning lows at around 1388 to 1403 roughly. In the last half hour they rolled over hard into the close and closed with massive losses.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 312.95 at 12,932.73, about 50 points off the low. The S&P 500 was down 33.86 at 1394.53, a definitive breakdown today. That was about 6 points off its low. The Nasdaq 100 was down 68.36 to 2612.69, a 2 1/2-3% loss today, and about 10 points off its low.

Advance-declines were nearly 5 to 1 negative on theNew York Stock Exchange, and nearly 6 to 1 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 11 to 1 negative on New York, with total volume of 870 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 2 billion and had an 8 to 1 negative volume ratio.

It was a very, very negative day today.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were sharply lower in the morning, and came back in a 5-wave retracement in the afternoon, but rolled over into the close for a very negative session.

We’ll see what happens in the days to come.