Morning Update: 1/31/2012

4:54 am…

The indices started off  mixed this week. They were very volatile and opened lower, but had a wonderful recovery. There were large gap downs at the opening, they smartly bounced, and then lower lows were presented. The indices rallied sharply to midday, consolidated, and rallied again in the afternoon before forming  a balance area again in the afternoon.

Today I had several trades 6C, GC, NQ…

6C was a short I took last week on a fade of a possible stopping point and was able to close the position today for a nice total profit of +72 pips

GC  was an initaive trade of a balance area lower extreme that corresponds with a HTF strucutre breakout on the weekly I’m currently positive in the position

NQ was an initiaive trade of a balance area lower extreme that corerepsonds with a HTF strucuture breakout on the weekly I’m currently positive in the position

News for today… Chicago PMI, CB Consumer Confidence.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices gapped down sharply, found some support and then bounced, consolidated mid morning, extended the gains in the afternoon, pulled back to test a minor support level, that was successful, and in the last half hour bounced once again into the close. We have some important economic news towards the end of this week specifically unemployment numbers on Friday and I suspect the market will be rotational in nature until that news is released.

The weakness I would like to work on this week is my focus on the “process” throughout the trading day. The profits will take care of them self!

The strength that I would like to reinforce is the creativity and focus I have brought to improving the trading system and its components.

 

Olof Thomas

Morning Update: 1/30/2012

 

Good Morning! Looking to manage the 6C short position from last week in which 70+ pips have been locked in as profit and I would like to also see if the market reaches a swing extreme today. As most Mondays lately have been  negative and to the downside, directional Tuesday’s have proven to be a better cycle start day.

 

Olof Thomas

Morning Update: 1/27/2012

 

7:51 am…

 

The  market suffered losses today, although in the last half hour they did snap back from the session lows to pare the losses. The day started out with a move to the upside as the ES spiked up to 1330, the highest level reached this year and in this entire rally for two weeks. The NQ reached the highest levels as well at 2475.31. However, they then turned around and came down hard, bounced a few times, and stair-stepped their way lower, and spiked into the low just about a half hour before the close, at which time they snapped back on an apparent short-covering.

I had several trades yesterday…

6C: this was a fade of a possible stopping point. I initially had a tight STOP but realized I needed to give it some more room.  I added to the short position once it got into the trade location I was waiting for took profit at 23 & 47 pips.

NQ: I traded in and out of NQ today to help offset any losses from the 6C short.

CL: I took a CL long that i was stopped out immediately. Another hedge long.

As I write this update to ES has broken from a declining wedge and could test the highs established during RTH, Today being Friday I will take it easy and try to stop trading currencies after 11:00 am est.   News today…. GDP, GDP PRICE INDEX, MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT. Will be looking to manage the 6C short and possible trade around that position on the long side.

 

Olof Thomas

Morning Update: 1/25/2012

 

8:33 am…

The market indices had a down day, most of which in the  first few minutes, with large gaps down. They then snapped back to resistance twice in the morning at 2445 on the NQ, and the ES snapped back to 1316.75 They pulled back, retested successfully, and bounced again, but couldn’t get back to resistance on the NQ. ES did make some nominal new highs, backed off in the last half hour, but came on in the last 10 minutes.As I write this update the ES is still within a balance area formed from 1/20 and is at the lower extreme.  FOMC MEETING TODAY.

Yesterday I had one trade 6C_F

6c this was  a top setup in which price has broken below a balance area and can not get above that balance area.  Taerget was a ABC projection low from a 5 minute chart. Trade worked out very well!

Will be taking it light today with FOMC.  Starting not to trade on FOMC meetings or any major economic release for that matter!.

Olof Thomas

Morning Update: 1/24/2012

3:17… am

 

The market indices started out with a mixed session, and closed narrowly mixed. The day started out with a thrust to the upside with new rally highs on both the NQ and ES, reaching 2454 NQ, and 1319-plus on the ES. Then the indices rolled over hard, taking the NQ from 2453 to 2421, and the ES  from 1319 down to 1305. They worked their way higher, recovered about 50% of the losses, and pulled back into the close.

Today I had one trade 6C…

This was a balance extreme short that I intiated as a swing short. The timing on this trade was perfect and was able to take a quick 40 pip profit within hours. However, due to somewhat of a late and litghter position that i personally wanted my STOP was not placed in n ideal locaiton. As such, I was stopped out of the remaining balance for a small gain. I actually reentred the Short later in GLOBEX and currectnly still have the position open. My intent is to selll at the ABC low target of 0.9862. We shall see….

No news for tomorrow.  Although Wednesday there is the FOMC rate decions. This can make tomorrows action somewhat muted or we may continue to grind higher. As I scan charts its clear that the market is overbought but yet we continue to grind higher. Last time the market was this “over bought” we pulled backed 8-18%

 

Olof Thomas

Morning Update: 1/23/2012

6:07 am…

 

This week should be interesting as a market direction should become very clear. As Mondays typically have little to no action and as of late has had negative tone, will be trading lite and cautiously.  I am currently flat and will be looking to establish some new positions on Tuesday.  As many of us know the market is severely overbought and a pullback of a siginificnt level may occur at any time. Therefore one must stay diciplined and constanly awaare of market conditons and the current phase.  No news today… I will scan Daily, hourly, and range charts for opportunities and balance areas  so as to be prepared for directonal Tuesday!

 

Olof Thomas