Morning Update: 7/13/2012

The stock market indices had a down day today but they came way back. Early gap-downs and sharp sell-offs within the first hour got the Nasdaq 100 down to 2523 and the S&P 500 down to under 1326. They then pulled back midday, and then really spiked up just after the lunch hour, before backing off in the afternoon. Coming back up to test the highs late in the day, they made nominal new snapback highs near 1340 on the S&P 500, however, could not do so on the NDX. When that occurred, in the last 15 minutes, they sold off rather sharply but held support.  The day started out ugly for the stock market on Wednesday, but had a late snapback. The stocks that did well did really.  Net of the day, the Dow was down 31.26 at 12,573.27, about 80 points off its low, the S&P 500 was down 6.69 at 1334.76, 9 points off its low, and the Nasdaq 100 down 25.69 at 2545.30, 23 points off the low. Advance-declines were 3 to 2 negative on New York, and about 3 to 2 negative on Nasdaq as well. Up/down volume was almost 2 1/2 negative on New York, with total volume of 733 million shares. Nasdaq traded a little more than 1 2/3 billion, and had a 3 to 1 negative volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices gapped lower, went down sharply in the morning, and within an hour were at the session lows. They then snapped back sharply and took back a vast majority of the losses to actually get into the plus column on the Dow and near flat on the S&P 500. They did sell-off in the last 15 minutes to put them in the loss column on the session. However, with today’s lows being near oversold conditions, and near trend line and support levels, I’m not surprised we rallied, but it wasn’t more than technicals.

We’ll have to see if there’s a follow-through.

Economics
07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 93.5, prior 94.4
10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, est. 46.5, prior 46.7
10:00 JOLTS Job Openings, prior 3416
2:00 CNY Trade Balance, est. $21.50 B, prior $18.7 B
5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence, prior 40.7
8:30 GBP Industrial Production, est. -2.2%, prior -1.0%
14:00 GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate, prior 0.1%

Earnings
Before:
Shaw Group (SHAW) EPS 58, revs $1.49 B

After:
No major events. 

There were no important economic releases on Monday and there will be none on Tuesday.

 

Advertisements

Morning Update: 7/11/2012

The stock market indices had a lousy day today, but they did have a late snapback to pare back the losses.

The day started out with a big up move today. As well, that tagged right on resistance at 2630 Nasdaq 100 and 1362 S&P 500, but it failed right there quickly and sold off sharply in the morning. By midday, it stabilized to form little bear wedges. They rolled over early afternoon, and sold off sharply into the last 15 minutes before they snapped back.

Net of the day, the Dow was down 83.17 at 12,653.12, about 47 points off its low, the S&P 500 was down 10.99 at 1341.47, about 5 points off its low, and the Nasdaq 100 down 24.79 at 2585.52, 11 points off the low.

Advance-declines were nearly 2 to 1 negative on New York, and 2 to 1 negative on Nasdaq as well. Up/down volume was nearly 5 to 1 negative on New York, with total volume of 720 million shares. Nasdaq traded 1.66 billion, and had a 5 to 1 negative volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices gapped up sharply at the opening, but then failed quickly, rolled over, and fail down into a 3-wave decline intraday in a definitive down channel only bouncing off the bottom of those channels to prevent them from closing at the lows for the day. They did bounce of key support on the hourly charts.

We’ll see what that means tomorrow.

Instrument Strategy Market pos. Quantity Entry price Exit price Profit
NQ 09-12 Custom Short 4 2583.5 2578.75 362
GC 08-12 Custom Short 2 1571.2 1566.9 851
CL 08-12 Long 1 84.81 84.84 25.5

Economics
07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 93.5, prior 94.4
10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, est. 46.5, prior 46.7
10:00 JOLTS Job Openings, prior 3416
2:00 CNY Trade Balance, est. $21.50 B, prior $18.7 B
5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence, prior 40.7
8:30 GBP Industrial Production, est. -2.2%, prior -1.0%
14:00 GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate, prior 0.1%

Earnings
Before:
Shaw Group (SHAW) EPS 58, revs $1.49 B

After:
No major events. 

There were no important economic releases on Monday and there will be none on Tuesday.

Morning Update: 7/10/2012

The stock market indices started off on a weak note, and came straight off of an early little top to test the lows. They bounced again, and then backed off one more time, with the S&P 500 making lower lows, but the Nasdaq 100 not following through. That sparked a midafternoon rally, but then they rolled over hard in late afternoon, once again holding support, and bouncing back into the close.  The stock market indices had a very difficult session, especially at the get-go when foreign news caused the markets to…

Net of the day, the Dow was down 36.03 at 12,736.44, about 50 points off its low, the S&P 500 was down only 2.22 at 1352.46, only 6 points off its low, and the Nasdaq 100 which did not manage to get into the plus column, was down 1.98 at 2210.31, about 13 points off the low.

Advance-declines were about 340 issues lower on the New York Stock Exchange, much improved in the last hour, and about 14 to 10 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 2 to 1 negative on New York, with total volume of 600 million shares. Nasdaq traded 1.4 billion, and had about an 8 to 5 negative plurality.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices came down hard in the morning, held support, bounced three times, held support again, and then rally toward the end of the day, but closed negative on the session to start the week. However, the overall key support near 2598 – 2600 zone held on the NDX, and 1347-8 on the S&P 500 also held.

Those will be key areas to watch for tomorrow.

Economics
07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 93.5, prior 94.4
10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, est. 46.5, prior 46.7
10:00 JOLTS Job Openings, prior 3416
2:00 CNY Trade Balance, est. $21.50 B, prior $18.7 B
5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence, prior 40.7
8:30 GBP Industrial Production, est. -2.2%, prior -1.0%
14:00 GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate, prior 0.1%

Earnings
Before:
Shaw Group (SHAW) EPS 58, revs $1.49 B

After:
No major events. 

There were no important economic releases on Monday and there will be none on Tuesday.

 

Instrument Strategy Market pos. Quantity Entry price Exit price Profit
CL 08-12 Custom Long 1 85.52 86.45 925.5

 

Morning Update: 7/6/2012

The stock market indices had a mixed session, and it was quite volatile despite the low volume today.

The day started out with a sharp dip to the downside which held, and then reversed sharply. The Nasdaq 100 really ran with Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Google Inc. (GOOG) leading the way. They then backed off midday and came on again in early afternoon to reach the session highs at 2660 NDX and 1374 S&P 500. Despite the new highs on the NDX, the S&P 500 was not able to get to 1375. They rolled over, and rolled over hard in the afternoon, and took back a big chunk of the gains, especially the NDX.

Net of the day, the Dow was down 47.15 at 12,896.67, about 65 points off its high, the S&P 500 was down 6.44 at 1367.58, only 6 points off its high, and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.63 at 2647.47, 13 points off the high.

Advance-declines were 17 to 13 negative on New York, and 13 to 11 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 2 1/2 to 1 negative on New York, with total volume of 676 million shares. Nasdaq traded 1.3 billion, and had dead even flat volume ratio

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were down early, snapped back sharply by midday, reached their session highs, but couldn’t get through the highs on the S&P 500 from Tuesday, even though the NDX did. They then rolled over and gave back a big chunk of the gains, which turned into losses for the S&P 500 and the Dow today.

It was a mixed picture. We’ll see how it goes tomorrow.

Friday, July 6

Economics
8:30 am: Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 90K, prior 69K
8:30 am: Private Payrolls, est. 97K, prior 82K
8:30 am: Manufacturing Payrolls, est. 5K, prior 12K
8:30 am: Unemployment Rate, est. 8.2%, prior 8.2%
8:30 am: Avg Weekly Hours, est: 34.4, prior 34.4
11:00 am: Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes in 1-year range
7:15 CHF Consumer Price Index
8:30 GBP Producer Price Index
10:00 EUR German Industrial Production
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate

The ISM non mfg. number was 52.1, less than the expected 53.0. Initial claims were 374,000, less than the consensus 386,000. Oil inventories were down 4.3 million barrels. The ADP employment report was much better than expected, up 176,000. The expectation was for a rise of 95,000. On Friday we will get the non farm payroll.

Morning Update: 7/3/2012

The stock market started out with a topsy-turvy morning as the indices ran up early, came down hard on economic news that was less than desirable, and then bounced around in wedge formation. They broke out midday, but couldn’t get to the highs, backed off to consolidate, and then late in the day, they came on strong with the Nasdaq 100 closing at the day’s high, and the S&P 500 not far from it.

So you can see how they came back in the afternoon.

Advance-declines were nearly 21 1/2 to 9 positive on New York, and 16 to 9 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was almost a little under 2 to 1 positive on New York, with total volume of 727 million shares. The Nasdaq traded a little over 1.75 billion, and had a 2 to 1 positive volume ratio.

It was a very positive day as it turned out at the end, but the question was in doubt at the end, and although the S&P 500 did close near the highs for the day, it still has not broken out above key resistance right at this level. If they move up, or gap up, tomorrow, we’ll have a key breakout from a major bottoming pattern. Nasdaq 100 needs to get over 2635 to do that, but that’s only 10 points.

Instrument Strategy Market pos. Quantity Entry price Exit price Profit
6E 09-12 Custom Long 1 1.2596 1.2596 -4.5
6E 09-12 Custom Long 1 1.2596 1.2596 -4.5
6E 09-12 Custom Long 1 1.2596 1.2597 8
6E 09-12 Custom Long 1 1.2596 1.2597 8
TF 09-12 Initiative Trade Balance Extreme Long 1 791.4 804.2 1275.5
TF 09-12 Initiative Trade Balance Extreme Long 1 791.4 804.2 1275.5
ES 09-12 Short 1 1355 1358.25 -167
ES 09-12 Short 2 1355 1358.25 -334

Tuesday, July 3

Economics
10:00 am: Factory Orders, est. 0.1%, prior -0.6%
11:30 am: U.S. to sell 4-week bills
US market closes at 1:00 p.m. ET
1:00 CNY China Non-manufacturing PMI
4:30 AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
8:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction
9:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index

Earnings
Before:
No major events. 

After:
No major events. 

The ISM manufacturing index came in at 49.7, worse than the expected 52.0. Construction spending rose 0.9%, better than the consensus 0.2%. On Tuesday we will get factory orders.