Morning Update: 12/5/2012

Indices Close Lower but Substantially Off Lows

The stock market indices ended down on the day, substantially off the morning lows. They were actually in the plus column with an hour to go, but failed and faded in the last hour.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 13.90 at 12,951.71, 13 points off the low and 70 points off the high. The S&P 500 was down 2.42 at 1407.04, 4 points off the low and about 6 off high. The Nasdaq 100 was down 3.95 at 2667.89, 15 points off the low and 7 off the high.

Advance-declines were slightly negative by 100 issues on theNew York Stock Exchange, and 125 issues on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was slightly negative on New York, and slightly negative on Nasdaq as well.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were down sharply by late morning. They rallied back and pulled back to retest, and made lower lows on the S&P 500 but not on the NDX. That contributed to an afternoon 3-wave rally that failed, and they rolled over into the close.

It was not too bad of a day, and many of our stocks were up today. Let’s see what happens tomorrow.

 

Leaders

Averages

Institutional

Wednesday, December 5

Economics
07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
08:15 ADP Employment Change – consensus 130K, prior 158K
08:30 Nonfarm Productivity – consensus 2.7%, prior 1.9%
08:30 Unit Labor Costs – consensus -0.9%, prior -0.1%
10:00 Factory Orders – consensus 0.0%, prior 4.8%
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite – consensus 53.5, prior 54.2
11:00 Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5.25b Treasuries in 6 to 8-year notes
00:30 AUD GDP
01:45 CNY HSBC Services PMI
08:45 EUR Eurozone PMI Services
09:30 GBP PMI Services
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales
20:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision
9:30 Spain to sell debt
11:30 Germany to sell EU4b 2-year notes

Earnings
After:
Finisar (FNSR)

There were no significant economic releases on Tuesday. On Wednesday we will get the ADP employment report, Factory orders, the ISM non manufacturing number and oil inventories.

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Morning Update: 10/10/2012

 

Very Nasty Day for the NDX

The stock market indices had a very nasty session today.

The day started out with gap down followed by backing and filling on the S&P 500, but the NDX just kept falling as Apple, Google, Amazon, etc., all got hit harder early. The tumbling dissipated just before noon, and throughout the next few hours they formed bear wedges and coils. They rolled over in the afternoon with the Nasdaq 100 taking out the lows slightly, and the Dow and S&P 500 closing near the session lows. The NDX held above the lows, but not by much, and closed down sharply as well.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 110.12, under 13,500 at 13,473.53. The S&P 500 was down 14.40 at 1441.48. The Nasdaq 100 was down 45.00 at 2741.92.

Advance-declines were more than 3 to 1 negative on New York Stock Exchange, and nearly 4 to 1 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 3 to 1 negative on New York, with total volume of 600 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.66 billion, and had a 7 to 1 negative volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices came down very hard as the NDX dropped from 2785 down to nearly 2735, almost 50 points. They snapped back about 20 points, and then rolled over into the close to close down a nasty 45.00 today. The S&P 500 dropped from 1456 down to 1441, bounced, and then rolled over into the close, closing at the lows for the day.

It was a very bad day, with key support being pressed here after initial support was violated earlier in the day.

We are down pretty sharply after the last couple of sessions and are at key short-term support. Perhaps a little oversold. We could see it bounce tomorrow, but this could also accelerate lower and crack some key levels

Wednesday, October 10

Economics
07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
10:00 JOLTs Job Openings – prior 3664
10:00 Wholesale Inventories – consensus 0.4%, prior 0.7%
2:00 Fed’s Beige Book
11:00 Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes in 1 to 3-year range
11:30 US to sell 4-week bills
1:00 US to sell $21b in 10-year notes (reopening)
23:50 JPY Machine Tool Orders
10:00 Italy to sell bills
10:30 Germany to sell EU4b in 5-year notes
11:00 Germany to sell EU1.5b 10-year inflation linked bonds

Earnings
Before:
Costco (COST) EPS $1.31
Progressive (PGR) EPS 26c
After:
ADTran (ADTN) EPS 16c
OCZ Tech (OCZ) EPS -13c

There were no important economic releases on Tuesday. On Wednesday we will get the Fed’s Beige Book.

Morning Update: 8/29/2012

The stock market indices were choppy in the morning, narrow in the afternoon, and then tried to rally late in the session. They rolled over into the close at the afternoon lows and mixed on the session right where they opened.The day started out with the indices mixed. They tried to rally, and then came down sharply to test support that held. They bounced, retested, and then went to the session highs for the day on the Nasdaq 100 at 2790 just around midday. At that point, with the new high on the NDX, and the S&P 500 not making one, they rolled back into the afternoon and tested, held a couple times, and then tried a late rally that failed, and rolled over hard into the close.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 21.68 at 13,102.99, about 45 points off its high. The S&P 500 was down 1.14 at 1409.30, only 4 points off its high. The Nasdaq 100 was up 14 cents at 2782.69, 8 points off the high and 10 points off the low.

Advance-declines were 16 to 12 positive on New York Stock Exchange, and about 3 to 2 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was slightly lower on New York, with total volume of a very light 500 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.3 billion, and had a slightly lower volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were very choppy and volatile in the morning, settled down a little bit in the afternoon, tried to breakout but couldn’t, and rolled over into the close to close down on the blue chips, and slightly higher on Nasdaq 100. It was a very mixed, choppy day today, and tough to gauge where we’re going.

Wednesday, August 29

Economics
07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
08:30 GDP QoQ (Annualized) – consensus 1.7%, prior 1.5%
08:30 Personal Consumption – consensus 1.5%, prior 1.5%
08:30 GDP Price Index – consensus 1.6%, prior 1.6%
08:30 Core PCE – consensus 1.8%, prior 1.8%
10:00 Pending Home Sales – consensus 1.0%, prior -1.4%
10:00 Pending Home Sales YoY – consensus 9.0%, prior 8.4%
2:00 Fed’s Beige Book
11:00 Fed purchasing $4.25b-$5b in 6 to 8-year range
1:00 U.S. to sell $35b 5-year notes
07:00 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator
12:00 EUR German CPI
23:50 JPY Large Retailer Sales
10:00 Italy to sell bills

Earnings
Before:
Joy Global (JOY) EPS $1.89
Fresh Market (TFM) EPS 27c
Heinz (HNZ) EPS 80c
After:
Pandora (P) EPS -3c
TiVo (TIVO) EPS -24c
Vera Bradley (VRA) EPS 35c

The Case Shiller home price index showed a rise of 0.9%, better than the expected 0.4%. Consumer confidence came in at 60.6, less than the anticipated 65.9. On Wednesday we will get GDP, pending home sales, oil inventories and the Fed Beige Book.

Morning Update: 8/23/2012

The stock market indices had a mixed session at the close, but came way off the lows after the FOMC made some positive statements that helped the market rally.  It was a very ominous, nasty day on Wall Street on Tuesday, particularly for the Nasdaq 100 market generals, which ultimately…

The day started out, however, with a dip. They then bounced, with the Nasdaq 100 acting much better than the S&P 500. By midday the S&P 500 had made nominal new lows near 1407, but the pullback midday on the NDX was far from the earlier lows. That was a positive divergence causing the market to rally into the FOMC.

At that point, they popped, pulled back, tested intraday moving averages, and then rocketed with a half hour to go to the highs for the day. The NDX had rallied from 2759 to 2790, about 31 points at that point, while the S&P 500 jumped from 1407 to 1416, about 9 points. In the last half hour they backed and filled, and consolidated, but held support, and closed mixed on the session.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 30.74 at 13,172.84, about 32 points off its high and 42 points off the low. The S&P 500 was up .34 at 1413.51, only 3 points off its high and 7 points off the low. Apple and Google were sharply higher, and the NDX closed up 11.22 at 2783.42, 7 points off the high and 24 points off the low.

Advance-declines were still 3 to 2 negative on New York Stock Exchange, and 3 to 2 negative on Nasdaq as well. Up/down volume was just slightly negative on New York, with total volume of 583 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.4 billion, and had a 4 to 3 negative volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices opened lower, bounced, and then made midday lows before a big afternoon rally following the positive FOMC statements. The market closed mixed on the session, with Nasdaq 100 up solidly on the day. Key support did hold today, and now we’ll be watching 2760 NDX and about 1408 S&P 500 to see whether that level and that key level can hold.

We’ll see how it goes tomorrow.

Thursday, August 23

Economics
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – consensus 364K, prior 361K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3300K, prior 3332K
08:58 Markit US Flash PMI – consensus 51.5
10:00 New Home Sales – consensus 365K, prior 350K
10:00 House Price Index – consensus 0.5%, prior 0.8%
11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2b Treasuries in 10 to 20-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $14b in 5-year TIPS
02:30 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
06:00 CHF Trade Balance
06:00 EUR German GDP
07:30 EUR German PMI
08:30 EUR PMI
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Earnings
Before:
No reports
After:
Aruba Networks (ARUN) EPS 17c
Salesforce.com (CRM) EPS 39c

Existing home sales were higher by 4.47 million, less than the expected 4.50 million. Oil inventories dropped 5.4 million barrels. Last week they declined by 3.7 million.

 

Morning Update: 8/21/2012

The stock market indices had a narrowly mixed session at the close, but came way off of early weakness that actually broke short-term support on the S&P 500, but did not get confirmation on the Nasdaq 100. The NDX had a very strong day from Apple Inc. (AAPL), which jumped 17.04 to 665.15, the high for the day, and an all-time new high. Apple is one of the reasons why the NDX snapped back today, and it led the indices back from an early decline.  The day started out with Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 opening with some volatility. They dropped lower, with the NDX dropping down to the 2767-8 area, and the S&P 500 to 1412. They then ran sharply to the highs for the day, with the NDX just under 2785, a jump of about 18 points. The S&P 500 ran back up to the 1417 area. Both indices pulled back when the S&P 500 did not make a new high. After a few corrective falling-type wedges, in a 3-wave ascent, they moved back up to test the highs for the day, and closed right near there.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 3.56 at 13,271.64, about 41 points off its low and 5 points off the high. The S&P 500 was down just .03 at 1418.13, 6 points off its low and right at the high for the day. The Nasdaq 100 was up 4.03 at 2784.33, just pennies off the high and 17 points off its low.

Advance-declines were 16 to 13 negative on New York Stock Exchange, and about 7 to 5 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was just slightly negative on New York, with total volume of a very light 533 million shares. Nasdaq traded 1.33 billion, and had an 8 to 5 negative plurality.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices came down in the morning, rallied sharply until midday, and then backed off early afternoon, only to come on again in the afternoon to close at the session highs for the day.

It was a pretty good day for the indices despite some profit-taking. We’ll see how it goes tomorrow.

 

Tuesday, August 21

Economics
No major U.S. economic reports
11:00 Fed selling $7b-8b in 2 to 3-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills, $25b in 52-week bills
01:30 AUD RBA Minutes
03:00 NZD Credit Card Spending
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
9:30 Spain to sell 12-month,18-month bills

Earnings
Before:
Barnes & Nobles (BKS) EPS -$1.00
Best Buy (BBY) EPS 31c
After:
Dell (DELL) EPS 45c
Williams-Sonoma (WSM) EPS 41c

There were no important economic releases on Monday and there will be none on Tuesday.

Morning Update: 8/10/2012

The stock market indices had an interesting, mixed day today. This is the third day in a row that the market has held its own, while the market consolidated. Many stocks that we follow are continuing to press higher. That’s a good sign for further upside. A bad sign for the bears, for sure.  The day started out with a pop to the upside, they tested resistance, and then rolled over hard. After slightly violating support, it came back with a thrust, bringing the Nasdaq 100 from 2708 to 2725. The S&P 500 jumped from 1399 to 1405. They backed off in the last hour, and backed and filled for the rest of the session.

Net on the day, the Dow was down .45 at 13,164.19, about 35 points off its high and 40 points off the low. The S&P 500 was up 58 cents at 1402.80, only 3 points off its high and 4 points off the low. The Nasdaq 100 was up 5.59 at 2719.61, 5 points off the high and 11 points off the low.

Advance-declines were 16 to 13 positive on New York Stock Exchange, and 13 1/2 to 11 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 3 to 2 positive on New York, with total volume of a very light 560 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.6 billion, and had a 3 to 2 positive volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were up early to test resistance, and then rolled over hard to test support, but bounced midday, and consolidated at the end of the day to close mixed on the session.

 

Friday, August 10

Economics
08:30 Import Price Index MoM – consensus 0.2%, prior -2.7%
08:30 Import Price Index YoY – consensus -2.7%, prior -2.6%
02:00 Monthly Budget Statement – consensus -$103.0B
11:00 Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes in 1-2 year range
04:30 JPY Industrial Production
06:00 EUR German CPI
08:30 GBP PPI
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate
11:10 UK to sell bills

Earnings
Before:
JC Penney (JCP) EPS -23c

The trade deficit was $42.9 billion. This was less than the projected $47.5 billion. Initial claims were 361,000, less than the expected 367,000. There are no significant economic releases on Friday.

We’ll see how it goes tomorrow.

Morning Update: 7/10/2012

The stock market indices started off on a weak note, and came straight off of an early little top to test the lows. They bounced again, and then backed off one more time, with the S&P 500 making lower lows, but the Nasdaq 100 not following through. That sparked a midafternoon rally, but then they rolled over hard in late afternoon, once again holding support, and bouncing back into the close.  The stock market indices had a very difficult session, especially at the get-go when foreign news caused the markets to…

Net of the day, the Dow was down 36.03 at 12,736.44, about 50 points off its low, the S&P 500 was down only 2.22 at 1352.46, only 6 points off its low, and the Nasdaq 100 which did not manage to get into the plus column, was down 1.98 at 2210.31, about 13 points off the low.

Advance-declines were about 340 issues lower on the New York Stock Exchange, much improved in the last hour, and about 14 to 10 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 2 to 1 negative on New York, with total volume of 600 million shares. Nasdaq traded 1.4 billion, and had about an 8 to 5 negative plurality.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices came down hard in the morning, held support, bounced three times, held support again, and then rally toward the end of the day, but closed negative on the session to start the week. However, the overall key support near 2598 – 2600 zone held on the NDX, and 1347-8 on the S&P 500 also held.

Those will be key areas to watch for tomorrow.

Economics
07:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 93.5, prior 94.4
10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, est. 46.5, prior 46.7
10:00 JOLTS Job Openings, prior 3416
2:00 CNY Trade Balance, est. $21.50 B, prior $18.7 B
5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence, prior 40.7
8:30 GBP Industrial Production, est. -2.2%, prior -1.0%
14:00 GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate, prior 0.1%

Earnings
Before:
Shaw Group (SHAW) EPS 58, revs $1.49 B

After:
No major events. 

There were no important economic releases on Monday and there will be none on Tuesday.

 

Instrument Strategy Market pos. Quantity Entry price Exit price Profit
CL 08-12 Custom Long 1 85.52 86.45 925.5