Morning Update: 2/28/2012

The stock market indices suffered sharp losses at the opening, but quickly reversed and rallied sharply, even getting into the positive column. They then bounced around, consolidated for the rest of the day, and made new highs with about an hour to go at nearly 2620 on the NQ and nearly 1373 on the S&P 500. They pulled back sharply, bounced, and then rolled over into the close to put the Dow in the negative column.

Net on the day, the YM was down 1.44, giving back 46 points, closing under 13,000 at 12,981.51 after reaching 13,027.37. The ES was up 1.85 to 1367.59, 4 1/2 points off its high. The NQ was up 2.55, but closed more than 10 points off its high at 2606.76, with a high of nearly 2617.

Advance-declines were barely ahead on the New York Stock Exchange by only 11 issues, and Nasdaq had 227 stocks lower versus higher. Up/down volume was also barely ahead by a narrow margin on New York, with total volume just over 720 million share traded today. Nasdaq traded about 1.7 billion shares and had a 10 to 7 positive volume ratio.

 

NEWS:

USD Durable Goods Orders (MoM) -0.8% 3.0%
08:30  USD Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.0% 2.2%
09:00  USD S&P/CS Home Price Indices Composite – 20 (YoY) -3.6% -3.7%
10:00  USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 10 12
10:00  USD CB Consumer Confidence 63.0 61.1

 

No trades today.

 

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, big down gaps at the opening couldn’t thwart the market as within the next 15 minutes after some follow-through they then exploded to the upside. They consolidated the rest of the session only to pull back into the close to leave the indices fairly flat on the day.

 

 

Olof Thomas

 

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Morning Update: 2/23/2012

The stock market had a choppy day with the indices backing off into the close not too far from the session lows, although they did bounce in the last five minutes to improve results, but still it was negative results today.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 27.02 at 12,938.67, the S&P 500 down 4.55 to 1357.66, and the Nasdaq 100 down 10.46 at 2579.78.

Advance-declines were about 3 to 2 negative on the New York Stock Exchange, and about 2 to 1 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was about 2 to 1 negative on New York, and Nasdaq had a 3 to 1 negative volume ratio.

It was quite the negative day today, not drastically so, but a decisively negative day indeed.

The Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares (TNA) ultra-long was down 1.42 to 59.79, and the Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) lost 2.95 to 88.60.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices opened slightly lower, snapped back to the session highs early on, and then retested, bounced, and made lower lows, reaching the lows for the day just around noon. They rallied to midday, could not make higher highs, and then rolled over into the close to retest the lows, but did not break them. Wedge-type patterns did form on the indices today, perhaps a consolidation or perhaps precursor to more downside.

We’ll have to see how it goes tomorrow.

 

NEWS

8:30  USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3392K 3460K 3444K
08:30  USD Initial Jobless Claims 351K 354K 351K
08:30  CAD Corporate Profits (QoQ) 9.0% -0.5%
09:45  USD Bloomberg Consumer Confidence -38.4 -39.8
10:00  USD Mass Layoffs 1.43K 1.38K
10:00  USD House Price Index (MoM) 0.7% 0.4% 0.7%
10:30  USD Natural Gas Storage -166B -146B -127B
10:30  CAD BoC Review
11:00  USD Gasoline Inventories -0.6M -0.3M 0.4M
11:00  USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.6M 1.0M -0.2M

 

Morning Update: 2/22/2012

The stock market indices closed mixed on the day, and were kind of choppy, with a move sharply lower in the morning. They stabilized and a rallied back late in the day to bring the ES and the YM into the plus column. The NQ, however, was weak all day, and stayed that way, closing down on the session, although, in the last 10-15 minutes the indices did pull back off the afternoon highs when they were challenging resistance, but were unable to break through.

Net on the day, the YM was up 46.02 at 12,937.10, the ES  up 3.19 to 1360.23, just 2 points off the high, and the NQ was down 8.05 at 2580.24, about 9 points off its high.

Advance-declines were 17 to 13 positive on the NYSE, and flat on NQ. Up/down volume was 47 to 37 positive on New York, with total volume of 850 million shares traded today. NQ traded about more than 1.8 billion shares, and had a 10 to 8 negative plurality.

 

NEWS

10:00  USD Existing Home Sales 4.67M 4.61M
13:00  USD 5-Year Note Auction 0.899%

 

Two trades today 6C and 6E

6C was a balance extreme short that I’m still holding and positive

6E was a balance extreme short that I’m still holding and positive

 

Looking for a continued move to the down side and will manage my open positions. 6C short, 6E short, and ZB long.

 

Olof Thomas

Morning Update: 2/17/2012

 

5:28 am…

The stock market indices had a stellar day today, with a long rally after a mixed opening. When it was evident the indices were not going to fall through to the downside, they just exploded, and took off in a strong rally that lasted from early on until mid-afternoon. At that point, they consolidated, but still managed to firm up near the close, and closed at the highs for the day going away. The Nasdaq 100 had bounced back from a low this morning of 2551 to as high as 2595, and the S&P 500 from under 1340 to 1359.

So, it was a very good day for the indices.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 123.13 at 12,904.08, which is the first time it was over 12,900 in a very long time. The S&P 500 was up 14.81 to 1358.04, 1 point off its high, and the Nasdaq 100 up 36.28 at 2592.29, just 2 points off its high.

Advance-declines were 3 to 1 positive on the New York Stock Exchange, and 3 to 1 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 6 to 1 positive on New York, with total volume of just under 800 million shares traded today. Nasdaq traded just under 1.9 billion shares and had a 5 to 1 positive volume ratio.

It was a good day with an increase in volume.

 

3 trades today… YM, 6A 

YM was a balance extreme responsive trade. I attempted to short this twice and had two small losses.

6A- was a responsive short from a balance extreme of larger degree balance area and was stopped out in Globex for a loss.

 

NEWS:

08:30  USD CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.0%
08:30  USD Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.1%
10:00  USD CB Leading Index (MoM) 0.6% 0.4%

 

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, after an early morning attempt and a test of support held, the indices rallied sharply, closing near the highs for the day going away on a very big day for Wall Street.

 

Olof Thomas