Morning Update: 12/5/2012

Indices Close Lower but Substantially Off Lows

The stock market indices ended down on the day, substantially off the morning lows. They were actually in the plus column with an hour to go, but failed and faded in the last hour.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 13.90 at 12,951.71, 13 points off the low and 70 points off the high. The S&P 500 was down 2.42 at 1407.04, 4 points off the low and about 6 off high. The Nasdaq 100 was down 3.95 at 2667.89, 15 points off the low and 7 off the high.

Advance-declines were slightly negative by 100 issues on theNew York Stock Exchange, and 125 issues on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was slightly negative on New York, and slightly negative on Nasdaq as well.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were down sharply by late morning. They rallied back and pulled back to retest, and made lower lows on the S&P 500 but not on the NDX. That contributed to an afternoon 3-wave rally that failed, and they rolled over into the close.

It was not too bad of a day, and many of our stocks were up today. Let’s see what happens tomorrow.

 

Leaders

Averages

Institutional

Wednesday, December 5

Economics
07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
08:15 ADP Employment Change – consensus 130K, prior 158K
08:30 Nonfarm Productivity – consensus 2.7%, prior 1.9%
08:30 Unit Labor Costs – consensus -0.9%, prior -0.1%
10:00 Factory Orders – consensus 0.0%, prior 4.8%
10:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite – consensus 53.5, prior 54.2
11:00 Fed to purchase $4.25b-$5.25b Treasuries in 6 to 8-year notes
00:30 AUD GDP
01:45 CNY HSBC Services PMI
08:45 EUR Eurozone PMI Services
09:30 GBP PMI Services
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales
20:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision
9:30 Spain to sell debt
11:30 Germany to sell EU4b 2-year notes

Earnings
After:
Finisar (FNSR)

There were no significant economic releases on Tuesday. On Wednesday we will get the ADP employment report, Factory orders, the ISM non manufacturing number and oil inventories.

Morning Update: 11/12/2012

Tainted Rally With Weak Afternoon Action

The stock market indices had an interesting but volatile day today, coming off oversold oscillator readings. The indices bounced from the get-go and retested. When they held, the indices took off in a strong rally, which peaked out just before noon, with the NDX having jumped from 2572 to 2610, a 38-point jump. The S&P 500, at that point, jumped from 1373 to early 1392, about 19 points. So that was a nice, strong rally, but they sold off very quickly and gave back a .618 Fibonacci retracement by early afternoon. They then snapped back and then did another .618 Fibonacci retracement to test the declining topsline, but rolled over again. Although they did bounce a few minutes before the close, in the last 10 minutes they sold off again to the afternoon low and near support to close only very modestly higher.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 4.07 at 12,815.39, 75 points off the high and about the same amount off the low. The S&P 500 was up 2.34 at 1379.84, 12 points off its high and 6 points off its low. The Nasdaq 100 was up 11.53 at 2584.10, about 26 points off its high and 13 points off its low.

So it was a kind of mixed, sloppy, volatile day, and the indices managed to eke out a gain, although technical were flat to slightly lower

Advance-declines were 15 to 14 negative on the New YorkStock Exchange, and only 23 issues higher on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was a tad higher on New York and Nasdaq had a little lower volume ratio.

Basically, it was a net-net flat session with the technicals across the board, and today was not the best rally indeed.

On the downside, there were no stocks down as much as a point today, other than Amazon, which we mentioned above.

So it was not that bad from a loss standpoint, but it was a tainted rally with weak afternoon action.

We’ll see how it goes on Monday.

 

Morning Update: 10/18/2012

Mixed Day With Positive Technicals

The stock market indices had a mixed close, but a volatile session. The Nasdaq 100 moved down fairly sharply at the opening, while the S&P 500 actually firmed up. They then both turned around and ran sharply to reach the session highs on the NDX early in the morning, and then pulled back. Falling wedges have appeared for both of them to try another high. They did, and the S&P 500 broke out to new highs at 1452, but the NDX couldn’t confirm. They both rolled over hard early afternoon. When secondary support held, they rallied back sharply only to fall back again in the last 20-30 minutes.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 5.07 at 13,556.85, 5 points off the high and 90 points off the low. The S&P 500 was up 5.99 at 1460.91, slightly off the high and 7 points off the low. The Nasdaq 100 was down 2.76 to at 2775.62, 9 points off the high and 15 points off the low.

Advance-declines were 20 1/2 to 9 positive onNew York Stock Exchange, and almost 3 to 2 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was nearly 3 to 1 positive on New York, with total volume of 670 million shares. Nasdaq traded nearly 1.7 billion, and had flat volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were down early, came back sharply, pulled back to retest and rallied to the session highs just before the lunch hour. They rolled over in the afternoon, snapped back sharply, only to pull back again into the close, and closed positive on the Dow and S&P 500, but negative on the Nasdaq 100.

It was a mixed day with positive technicals.

 

Institutional

 

Leaders

Thursday, October 18

Economics
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – consensus 365K, prior 339K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3275K, prior 3273K
10:00 Philly Fed – consensus 0.0, prior -1.9%
10:00 Leading Indicators – consensus 0.2%, prior -0.1%
11:00 Fed to buy $1.75b-$2.25b notes in 25 to 30-year range
1:00 US selling $7b in 30-year TIPS (reopening)
01:30 CNY China Property Prices
02:00 CNY Industrial Production
02:00 CNY Real GDP
02:00 CNY Retail Sales
08:30 GBP Retail Sales
12:30 CAD Wholesales Sales
9:30 Spain to sell 3, 4, 10-year bonds
10:30 UK to sell 7-year bonds

Earnings
Before:
BB&T (BBT) EPS 72c
Keycorp (KEY) EPS 21c
Traveler’s Insurance (TRV) EPS $1.51
Cypress Semiconductor (CY) EPS 20c
Southwest Airline (LOVE) EPS 13c
Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) EPS 39c
Phillip Morris (PM) EPS $1.39
Morgan Stanley (MS) EPS 25c
Verizon (VZ) EPS 65c
Union Pacific (UNP) EPS $2.17
After
Chipotle (CMG) EPS $2.29
Capital One Financial (COF) EPS $1.75
Riverbed (RVBD) EPS 25c
Microsoft (MSFT) EPS 59c
Google (GOOG) EPS $10.54
Sandisk (SNDK) EPS 33c
Etrade (ETFC) EPS 8c
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) EPS -17c
Blackstone (BX) EPS 41c

Oil inventories rose 2.9 million barrels, more than last week’s 1.7 million. Housing starts were 872,000, better than the expected 765,000. On Thursday we will get initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed mfg. survey

 

Morning Update: 10/17/2012

Will NDX Break Through Or Rollover?

The stock market indices had a very nice follow-up session to yesterday’s rally. They exploded early on, and ran until midday when they pulled back and consolidated. The S&P 500 formed a falling wedge, and the NDX a more regular wedge. They then ran up into the close, and snapped back to retest the session highs to make a nominal new high on the Nasdaq 100 of over 2781 just before the close. The S&P 500 did not make a new high, but reached right up to its old high, before backing off. However, they closed near the session highs for the day.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 127.55 at 13,551.78, the S&P 500 up 14.79 at 1454.92, and the Nasdaq 100 up 38.51 at 2778.38.

Advance-declines were more than 3 to 1 positive onNew York Stock Exchange, and 2 to 1 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was nearly 4 to 1 positive on New York, with total volume of a light 613 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.7 billion, and had a 2 to 1 positive volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices gapped up, ran very hard all morning, stalled midday at 2780 NDX and 1456 S&P 500. They consolidated and formed wedges before snapping back late in the day to close near the session high.

It was an excellent day, but the NDX closed right at key overhead resistance from the prior broken support line at 2780. It’s going to be important that it breaks through here, or we may see a rollover and an extension of the decline.

Let’s see what happens tomorrow.

 

Institutional

 

Sectors on the Move:

Sectors stronger than the SPX for Tuesday:
– Basic Materials — Outperformed the SPX by +123%.
– Industrials — Outperformed the SPX by +12%.
– Technology — Outperformed the SPX by +37%.
– Health Care — Outperformed the SPX by +5%.

Sectors weaker than the SPX for Tuesday:
– Energy — Underperformed the SPX by -16%.
– Financials — Underperformed the SPX by -40%.
– Consumer Staples — Underperformed the SPX by -77%.
– Utilities — Underperformed the SPX by -64%.
– Consumer Discretionary — Underperformed the SPX by -13%.

 

Wednesday, October 17

Economics
07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
08:30 Housing Starts – consensus 770K, prior 750K
08:30 Building Permits – consensus 810K, prior 801K
11:00 Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes in 3-year range
06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders
08:30 GBP BoE Minutes
08:30 GBP Unemployment
09:00 CHF ZEW Survey
10:00 Italy to sell bills
10:30 Germany to sell EU5b in 2-year notes

Earnings
Before:
Abbott Labs (ABT) EPS $1.28
Blackrock (BLK) EPS $3.29
Black & Decker (DECK) EPS $1.45
US Bancorp (EPS) 73c
Knight Capital (EPS) -$2.45
Bank of NY Mellon (BNY) EPS 55c
Pepsi (PEP) EPS $1.16
Bank of America (BAC) EPS 16c
St Jude Medical (STJ) EPS 81c
After
Stryker (SYK) EPS 99c
American Express (AXP) EPS $1.08
eBAY (EBAY) EPS 55c
SLM (SLM) EPS 54c
Halliburton (HAL) EPS 67c

CPI rose 0.6%, better than the expected 0.5%. Industrial production was up 0.4%, more than the consensus 0.2%. The housing market index came in at 41, in line with expectations.

Morning Update: 10/16/2012

 

Week Starts Off With A Bang

The stock market indices started off the week with a bang, and although they gapped up and then pulled back, support did hold. That prompted a mid morning rally that got up to resistance, but twice midday they failed there, and pulled back, though in an orderly 3-wave, corrective fashion, and held the late morning pull-back lows. When that occurred, they took off again in the afternoon, broke out above key 3-day resistance at 2735 NDX, and ran up to 2743 area. The S&P 500 jumped late in the day from 1434 to 1441, and then backed off finally at the close.

Net on the day, the Dow was up 95.38 at 13,424.23, the S&P 500 was up 11.54 at 1440.13, and the Nasdaq 100 close up 19.73 at 1739.87.

Advance-declines were 2 to 1 positive on New York Stock Exchange, and almost 3 to 1 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was nearly 3 to 1 positive on New York, with total volume of just under 600 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.5 billion, and had a 3 to 1 positive volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were up early, pulled back sharply to test support, but held, and then ran up to resistance and also held. Backing off by midafternoon, they held support, came on and broke out, and closed near the highs for the day going away.

That was an excellent start to the week. Let’s see how tomorrow goes.

Good Trading!

 

Institutional

 

Tuesday, October 16

Economics
08:30 Consumer Price Index YoY – consensus 1.9%, prior 1.7%
08:30 CPI Ex Food & Energy – consensus 2.0%, prior 1.9%
08:30 CPI NSA – consensus 231.360, prior 230.379
09:00 Total Net TIC Flows – prior $73.7B
09:00 Net Long-term TIC Flows – prior $67.0B
09:15 Industrial Production – consensus 0.2%, prior -1.2%
09:15 Capacity Utilization – consensus 78.3%, prior 78.2%
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index – consensus 41, prior 40
11:00 Fed purchasing $4.5b-5.5b notes in 8 to 10-year range
11:30 US selling $25b in 52-week bills, 4-week bills
08:30 GBP PPI
08:30 GBP CPI
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI
09:00 EUR German ZEW Sentiment
11:00 EFSF to sell 6-month bills
12:00 Greece to sell 91-day bills

Earnings
Before:
Coca-Cola (KO) EPS 50c
PNC Financial (PNC) EPS $1.66
Mattel (MAT) EPS 99c
Goldman Sachs (GS) EPS $2.28
Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) EPS $1.21
WW Grainger (GWW) EPS $2.89
After:
Cree (CREE) EPS 26c
CSX (CSX) EPS 43c
Apollo (APOL) EPS 49c
Intel (INTC) EPS 50c
State Street (STT) 96c

Retail sales rose 1.1%, better than the expected 0.7%. The Empire State mfg. index was minus 6.16, worse than the expected minus 3.0. On Tuesday we will get the CPI, Industrial production and housing market index.

Morning Update: 10/10/2012

 

Very Nasty Day for the NDX

The stock market indices had a very nasty session today.

The day started out with gap down followed by backing and filling on the S&P 500, but the NDX just kept falling as Apple, Google, Amazon, etc., all got hit harder early. The tumbling dissipated just before noon, and throughout the next few hours they formed bear wedges and coils. They rolled over in the afternoon with the Nasdaq 100 taking out the lows slightly, and the Dow and S&P 500 closing near the session lows. The NDX held above the lows, but not by much, and closed down sharply as well.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 110.12, under 13,500 at 13,473.53. The S&P 500 was down 14.40 at 1441.48. The Nasdaq 100 was down 45.00 at 2741.92.

Advance-declines were more than 3 to 1 negative on New York Stock Exchange, and nearly 4 to 1 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 3 to 1 negative on New York, with total volume of 600 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.66 billion, and had a 7 to 1 negative volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices came down very hard as the NDX dropped from 2785 down to nearly 2735, almost 50 points. They snapped back about 20 points, and then rolled over into the close to close down a nasty 45.00 today. The S&P 500 dropped from 1456 down to 1441, bounced, and then rolled over into the close, closing at the lows for the day.

It was a very bad day, with key support being pressed here after initial support was violated earlier in the day.

We are down pretty sharply after the last couple of sessions and are at key short-term support. Perhaps a little oversold. We could see it bounce tomorrow, but this could also accelerate lower and crack some key levels

Wednesday, October 10

Economics
07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
10:00 JOLTs Job Openings – prior 3664
10:00 Wholesale Inventories – consensus 0.4%, prior 0.7%
2:00 Fed’s Beige Book
11:00 Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes in 1 to 3-year range
11:30 US to sell 4-week bills
1:00 US to sell $21b in 10-year notes (reopening)
23:50 JPY Machine Tool Orders
10:00 Italy to sell bills
10:30 Germany to sell EU4b in 5-year notes
11:00 Germany to sell EU1.5b 10-year inflation linked bonds

Earnings
Before:
Costco (COST) EPS $1.31
Progressive (PGR) EPS 26c
After:
ADTran (ADTN) EPS 16c
OCZ Tech (OCZ) EPS -13c

There were no important economic releases on Tuesday. On Wednesday we will get the Fed’s Beige Book.

Morning Update: 9/27/2012

The stock market indices had a very steep, sharp decline early on today. That cracked the trendline on the Nasdaq 100, but not so on the S&P 500. Key support at 1440 was taken out, and it reached as low as 1430 today before bouncing, but 1440 on the way up proved futile. The indices rolled over into the close after a 5-wave technical snapback midday. They then backed off in a falling wedge at the end of the day.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 44.04 at 13,413.51, just 7 points off the low. The S&P 500 was down 8.27 at 1433.32, less than 2 points off the low. The Nasdaq 100 was down 22.90 at 2781.63, about 13 points off the low.

Advance-declines were 3 to 2 negative on New York Stock Exchange, and 3 to 2 negative on Nasdaq as well. Up/down volume was a little less than 2 to 1 negative on New York, with total volume of 675 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.7 billion, and had a 2 to 1 negative volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were down very sharply in the morning, until midmorning, when they rallied back in the afternoon to take back about half their losses, but then rolled over into the close to finish with substantial losses and suddenly negative technical.

Institutional

 

Thursday, September 27

Economics
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – consensus 375K, prior 382K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3278K, prior 3272K
08:30 GDP QoQ (Annualized) – consensus 1.7%, prior 1.7%
08:30 GDP Price Index – consensus 1.6%, prior 1.6%
08:30 Personal Consumption – consensus 1.7%, prior 1.7%
08:30 Core PCE – consensus 1.8%, prior 1.8%
08:30 Durable Goods – consensus -4.7%, prior 4.1%
08:30 Durable Goods ex Transports – consensus 0.3%, prior -0.4%
08:30 Cap Goods Orders – consensus 0.5%, prior -3.4%
11:00 Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes in 3-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $29b 7-year notes
CNY Leading Index
01:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence
01:30 CNY Industrial Profits
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change
08:30 GBP GDP
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence
23:15 JPY Jobless Rate
23:30 JPY Household Spending
23:50 JPY Industrial Production

Earnings

Before:
Discover Financial (DFS) EPS $1.04
After:
Nike (NKE) EPS $1.13
Global Payments (GPN) EPS 85c
Micron Tech (MU) EPS -22c

New home sales were 373,000, less than the expected 380,000. Oil inventories dropped 2.4 million. Last week they rose 8.5 million. On Thursday we will get durable goods, GDP, jobless claims and pending home sales.