Morning Update: 8/29/2012

The stock market indices were choppy in the morning, narrow in the afternoon, and then tried to rally late in the session. They rolled over into the close at the afternoon lows and mixed on the session right where they opened.The day started out with the indices mixed. They tried to rally, and then came down sharply to test support that held. They bounced, retested, and then went to the session highs for the day on the Nasdaq 100 at 2790 just around midday. At that point, with the new high on the NDX, and the S&P 500 not making one, they rolled back into the afternoon and tested, held a couple times, and then tried a late rally that failed, and rolled over hard into the close.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 21.68 at 13,102.99, about 45 points off its high. The S&P 500 was down 1.14 at 1409.30, only 4 points off its high. The Nasdaq 100 was up 14 cents at 2782.69, 8 points off the high and 10 points off the low.

Advance-declines were 16 to 12 positive on New York Stock Exchange, and about 3 to 2 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was slightly lower on New York, with total volume of a very light 500 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.3 billion, and had a slightly lower volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were very choppy and volatile in the morning, settled down a little bit in the afternoon, tried to breakout but couldn’t, and rolled over into the close to close down on the blue chips, and slightly higher on Nasdaq 100. It was a very mixed, choppy day today, and tough to gauge where we’re going.

Wednesday, August 29

Economics
07:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
08:30 GDP QoQ (Annualized) – consensus 1.7%, prior 1.5%
08:30 Personal Consumption – consensus 1.5%, prior 1.5%
08:30 GDP Price Index – consensus 1.6%, prior 1.6%
08:30 Core PCE – consensus 1.8%, prior 1.8%
10:00 Pending Home Sales – consensus 1.0%, prior -1.4%
10:00 Pending Home Sales YoY – consensus 9.0%, prior 8.4%
2:00 Fed’s Beige Book
11:00 Fed purchasing $4.25b-$5b in 6 to 8-year range
1:00 U.S. to sell $35b 5-year notes
07:00 CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator
12:00 EUR German CPI
23:50 JPY Large Retailer Sales
10:00 Italy to sell bills

Earnings
Before:
Joy Global (JOY) EPS $1.89
Fresh Market (TFM) EPS 27c
Heinz (HNZ) EPS 80c
After:
Pandora (P) EPS -3c
TiVo (TIVO) EPS -24c
Vera Bradley (VRA) EPS 35c

The Case Shiller home price index showed a rise of 0.9%, better than the expected 0.4%. Consumer confidence came in at 60.6, less than the anticipated 65.9. On Wednesday we will get GDP, pending home sales, oil inventories and the Fed Beige Book.

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Morning Update: 8/28/2012

The stock market indices started off the week with a mixed session. The Nasdaq 100 closed ahead, with Apple Inc. (AAPL) continuing strong after the positive ruling from international courts against Samsung. Apple was up 12.46 to 675.68, which certainly helped the NDX eke out a gain today.  The day started out with gap to the upside, followed by a pullback, and then they took off and hit the session highs just before noon. They then pulled down in an orderly fashion, but couldn’t rally. When they failed to breakout in the afternoon, they rolled over hard to nominal new lows, and then bounced into the close positively.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 33.30 at 13,124.67, and the S&P 500 was down 69 cents at 1402.80, but the Nasdaq 100 was up 4.50 at 2782.55, about 12 points off its high.

Advance-declines were about 164 issues lower on New York Stock Exchange, and almost dead-even flat on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 3 to 2 negative on New York, with total volume of an ultra-light 483 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1 1/4 billion, with the slightest negative plurality.

We’ll see how it goes tomorrow. The indices did pull back in the afternoon, very sharply, but held moving averages on the hourly charts. We’ll see if they can hold today’s lows, which may be key.

Tuesday, August 28

Economics
09:00 S&P/Case Shiller 20 City Index MoM – consensus 0.30%, prior 0.91%
09:00 S&P/Case Shiller 20 City Index YoY – consensus -0.10%, prior -0.66%
10:00 Consumer Confidence – consensus 65.9, prior 65.9
10:00 Richmond Fed – consensus -11, prior -17
11:00 Fed selling $4.5b-$5.5b in 8 to 10-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills
1:00 U.S. to sell $35b 2-year notes
CNY Leading Index
01:00 AUD HIA New Home Sales
06:00 EUR German GFK Consumer Confidence
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator
9:30 Spain to sell 3-month,6-month bills
10:00 Italy to sell coupon bonds

Earnings
No major reports

The Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey came in at minus 1.6, better than the expected minus 6.0. On Tuesday we will get the Case Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence.

Morning Update: 8/24/2012

Friday, August 24

Economics
08:30 Durable Goods Orders – consensus 2.5%, prior 1.3%
08:30 Durable Goods Ex Transport – consensus 0.5%, prior -1.4%
08:30 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air – consensus -0.4%, prior -1.4%
08:30 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air – consensus -0.5%, prior 1.2%
00:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index
08:30 GBP GDP
11:10 UK to sell bills

Jobless claims were 372,000 more than the expected 365,000. New home sales were 372,000, more than the consensus 362,000. On Friday we will get durable goods orders.

Morning Update: 8/23/2012

The stock market indices had a mixed session at the close, but came way off the lows after the FOMC made some positive statements that helped the market rally.  It was a very ominous, nasty day on Wall Street on Tuesday, particularly for the Nasdaq 100 market generals, which ultimately…

The day started out, however, with a dip. They then bounced, with the Nasdaq 100 acting much better than the S&P 500. By midday the S&P 500 had made nominal new lows near 1407, but the pullback midday on the NDX was far from the earlier lows. That was a positive divergence causing the market to rally into the FOMC.

At that point, they popped, pulled back, tested intraday moving averages, and then rocketed with a half hour to go to the highs for the day. The NDX had rallied from 2759 to 2790, about 31 points at that point, while the S&P 500 jumped from 1407 to 1416, about 9 points. In the last half hour they backed and filled, and consolidated, but held support, and closed mixed on the session.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 30.74 at 13,172.84, about 32 points off its high and 42 points off the low. The S&P 500 was up .34 at 1413.51, only 3 points off its high and 7 points off the low. Apple and Google were sharply higher, and the NDX closed up 11.22 at 2783.42, 7 points off the high and 24 points off the low.

Advance-declines were still 3 to 2 negative on New York Stock Exchange, and 3 to 2 negative on Nasdaq as well. Up/down volume was just slightly negative on New York, with total volume of 583 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.4 billion, and had a 4 to 3 negative volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices opened lower, bounced, and then made midday lows before a big afternoon rally following the positive FOMC statements. The market closed mixed on the session, with Nasdaq 100 up solidly on the day. Key support did hold today, and now we’ll be watching 2760 NDX and about 1408 S&P 500 to see whether that level and that key level can hold.

We’ll see how it goes tomorrow.

Thursday, August 23

Economics
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – consensus 364K, prior 361K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3300K, prior 3332K
08:58 Markit US Flash PMI – consensus 51.5
10:00 New Home Sales – consensus 365K, prior 350K
10:00 House Price Index – consensus 0.5%, prior 0.8%
11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2b Treasuries in 10 to 20-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $14b in 5-year TIPS
02:30 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI
06:00 CHF Trade Balance
06:00 EUR German GDP
07:30 EUR German PMI
08:30 EUR PMI
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence

Earnings
Before:
No reports
After:
Aruba Networks (ARUN) EPS 17c
Salesforce.com (CRM) EPS 39c

Existing home sales were higher by 4.47 million, less than the expected 4.50 million. Oil inventories dropped 5.4 million barrels. Last week they declined by 3.7 million.

 

Morning Update: 8/21/2012

The stock market indices had a narrowly mixed session at the close, but came way off of early weakness that actually broke short-term support on the S&P 500, but did not get confirmation on the Nasdaq 100. The NDX had a very strong day from Apple Inc. (AAPL), which jumped 17.04 to 665.15, the high for the day, and an all-time new high. Apple is one of the reasons why the NDX snapped back today, and it led the indices back from an early decline.  The day started out with Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 opening with some volatility. They dropped lower, with the NDX dropping down to the 2767-8 area, and the S&P 500 to 1412. They then ran sharply to the highs for the day, with the NDX just under 2785, a jump of about 18 points. The S&P 500 ran back up to the 1417 area. Both indices pulled back when the S&P 500 did not make a new high. After a few corrective falling-type wedges, in a 3-wave ascent, they moved back up to test the highs for the day, and closed right near there.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 3.56 at 13,271.64, about 41 points off its low and 5 points off the high. The S&P 500 was down just .03 at 1418.13, 6 points off its low and right at the high for the day. The Nasdaq 100 was up 4.03 at 2784.33, just pennies off the high and 17 points off its low.

Advance-declines were 16 to 13 negative on New York Stock Exchange, and about 7 to 5 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was just slightly negative on New York, with total volume of a very light 533 million shares. Nasdaq traded 1.33 billion, and had an 8 to 5 negative plurality.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices came down in the morning, rallied sharply until midday, and then backed off early afternoon, only to come on again in the afternoon to close at the session highs for the day.

It was a pretty good day for the indices despite some profit-taking. We’ll see how it goes tomorrow.

 

Tuesday, August 21

Economics
No major U.S. economic reports
11:00 Fed selling $7b-8b in 2 to 3-year range
11:30 Treasury selling 4-week bills, $25b in 52-week bills
01:30 AUD RBA Minutes
03:00 NZD Credit Card Spending
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
9:30 Spain to sell 12-month,18-month bills

Earnings
Before:
Barnes & Nobles (BKS) EPS -$1.00
Best Buy (BBY) EPS 31c
After:
Dell (DELL) EPS 45c
Williams-Sonoma (WSM) EPS 41c

There were no important economic releases on Monday and there will be none on Tuesday.

Weekend Update

Top Stories

Germany has opted to back the European Central Bank in its push for conditions for reducing borrowing costs, potentially through sovereign bond-buying. (1)

Spanish bank loans grew to 9.42 percent in May, while loans that fell into arrears grew 8.4 billion euros to 164.4 billion. These numbers are record highs for Spain, which just sought a 100 billion eurozone bailout. (2) Spain aims to request its first rescue payment shortly. (3)

Economic Releases & Statistics

Consumer spending fell to 1.5 percent, down from the first quarter’s 2.4 percent. U.S. Producer Price Index grew 0.3 percent in July, surpassing estimates for a 0.2 percent rise. Core PPI rose 0.4 percent, good prices increased 0.5 percent while energy prices fell 0.4 percent. (4) The Consumer Price Index was unchanged in July, versus forecasts for a 0.2 percent growth. Annually, the CPI grew 1.4 percent, down from June’s 1.7 percent. (5) Business inventories grew 0.1 percent in June to $1.58 trillion, while sales dropped 1.1 percent, the sharpest decline since March 2009. (6) U.S. retail sales grew 0.8 percent following four months of decline. Passing forecasts for a 0.3 percent rise, it is the biggest growth since February. Purchases rose in all 13 categories. (7) Industrial production rose 0.6 percent in July following May and June gains of 0.1 percent. This was in line with estimates. Capacity utilization grew 0.4 percent to 79.3 percent, the highest since April 2008. (8)

U.S. housing starts declined 1.1 percent to 746,000, countering forecasts for a rise to 756,000. Building permits grew to 812,000, the most since August 2008. Single-family home construction dropped 6.5 percent to 502,000, the first decline since February. Unemployment claims grew 2,000 to 366,000 last week, slightly higher than estimates for a rise to 365,000. (9)

Stocks & Earnings

Cisco Systems Inc.’s shares grew 9 percent on Thursday following a 75 percent rise in its quarterly dividend and its “commitment to return at least 50 percent of free cash flow in dividend and buybacks.” (10) On Friday, Facebook shares fell 4.3 percent to a new low as the company’s investors were given their first opportunity to sell. (11) Wal-Mart saw second quarter profits increase by 5.7 percent through further lowering prices and increasing merchandise. (12)

Global Currencies

U.S. benchmark Treasury bonds interest rates have begun rising following record lows. The 10-year Treasury bond has grown 28 percent and the 5-year bond has risen 36 percent since July 24. (13) Chile’s central bank opted to hold its key interest rate at 5 percent for the seventh straight month. (14) The Australian dollar fell 0.4 percent to $1.0474, continuing a 5-day slide to 1 percent. New Zealand’s dollar fell 0.1 percent to 80.94 U.S. cents following gains over the last two days. (15)

Oil & Energies

Natural gas storage grew 20 billion cubic feet to 3.261 trillion cubic feet, weaker than expectations for a 22 to 26 billion cubic feet gain. (16) Crude inventories fell 1 percent, 3.7 million barrels, to 366.2 million barrels, exceeding forecasts for a 1.5 million barrel decline. Gasoline storage declined 1.2 percent or 2.4 million barrels to 203.7 million, slightly greater than estimates for a 2.3 million barrel drop. Distillates grew 700,000 barrels to 124.2 million barrels, exceeding expectations for no change. (17) The U.S. increased oil imports by 20 percent from Saudi Arabia this year, growing its dependence on the kingdom. (18)

Grains & Field Crops

The weekly Crop Progress report showed conditions poor for Corn Belt crops but unchanged from last week. Corn in good/excellent condition continued at 23 percent, with 42 percent of corn dented and 78 percent doughing. 30 percent of soybeans in good/excellent condition while 38 percent are in poor/very poor condition. 83 percent of the crop has set pods. Spring wheat in good/excellent condition consists of 61 percent and only 11 percent is in poor/very poor condition. 65 percent of the crop has been harvested as of August 13. (19)

With the U.S.’ corn crop facing losses, Brazil is forecast to export as much as 15 million tonnes of corn this year and 20 million tonnes next year. The nation’s poor roads and bottlenecks at its ports could hamper this number slightly. Thanks to Chinese demand, its soy exports grew 41 percent last year, now accounting for 9.1 percent of Brazil’s exports. (20) Brazil will reportedly overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest soybean exporter in 2012-13. In response to higher prices, Brazilian and Argentinean farmers are estimated to plant more soybeans this season. (21)

Monday, Argentina approved the genetically modified Roundup Ready 2 soybean seed for use by its farmers. The seed is already used in Brazil. (22) Heavy storms in Argentina last week are prompting concerns of swamped fields as farmers prepare for fall planting. (23)

Precious Metals

Strikers at the Lonmin platinum mine in Marikana, South Africa were fired upon by local police on Thursday, resulting in 35 fatalities. Roughly 3,000 miners had gathered to press for wage increases, some armed with machetes and clubs. (24) China National Gold Corp is considering a bid for Barrick Gold’s African unit in order to help satiate their nation’s rising gold demand. A takeover of the unit would grow the company’s reserves by a third. (25)

Other Commodities

Espirito Santo, the largest coffee-growing state in Brazil, is forecast to see continued rains next week. (26) The nation’s coffee consumption grew 3 percent over the last year through April, consuming almost 20 million coffee bags. This growth is estimated to slow to 2.2 percent, totaling 20.4 million bags, over the next year. Brazil’s coffee crop is officially estimated at 50.45 million bags, up 6.95 million bags from last year’s harvest. (27) Sugar waiting in Brazilian ports fell 9.4 percent this week to 2.3 million metric tons, down from 2.5 million tons earlier. (28)

Ivory Coast’s cocoa bean exports fell 4.4 percent this season to 1.315 million metric tons, weaker than forecasts for a 1.36 million ton harvest. Dry weather may hamper the current crop, to be harvested in October. (29) Two Ivory Coast cocoa shipments to Brazil last month, totaling 10,000 tonnes, arrived infested with insects. The shipment was undocumented and had not been fumigated. (30) Ghana’s western region received 4.5 millimeters of rain at the beginning of August, hampering harvesting of the main cocoa crop. The global cocoa demand may outpace supply by 13,000 tons, or upwards of 270,000 tons if an El Niño does form, in the 2012-13 season. (31)

Next Week:

Date Currency Event GMT Forecast Previous
19-Aug Sun NZD NZD Performance Services Index 22:30   54.30
GBP GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) 23:01 -1.70%
GBP GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) 23:01 2.30%
20-Aug Mon JPY JPY Leading Index 05:00   92.60
JPY JPY Coincident Index 05:00 93.80
JPY JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) 07:00 -2.60%
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) 09:00 0.10%
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) 09:00 -8.40%
USD USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 12:30 -0.15
NZD NZD Net Migration s.a. 22:45 490.00
AUD AUD Reserve Bank Board – August Minutes 01:30
NZD NZD Credit Card Spending s.a. (MoM) 03:00 0.80%
NZD NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand 2-Year Inflation Expectation 03:00 2.40%
NZD NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) 03:00 4.60%
21-Aug Tue JPY JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) 04:30 0.20% -0.30%
JPY JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) 05:30 -1.20%
JPY JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) 05:30 -0.10%
CHF CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) 07:00 7.40%
CHF CHF Real Estate Index Family Homes 07:00 410.40
GBP GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) 08:30 3.0B
GBP GBP PSNB ex Interventions 08:30 -1.8B 14.4B
GBP GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) 08:30 -4.0B 12.1B
GBP GBP CBI Trends Total Orders 10:00 -9.00 -6.00
GBP GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices 10:00 -3.00
CAD CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) 12:30 0.30% 0.90%
USD USD Fed’s Lockhart Speaks in Atlanta 12:45
JPY JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) 23:50 -¥460.0B -¥300.8B
JPY JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) 23:50 -2.70 -2.30
JPY JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) 23:50 -¥270.0B ¥61.7B
JPY JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) 23:50 3.00 -2.20
AUD AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) 00:30 0.80%
AUD AUD DEWR Internet Skilled Vacancies (MoM) 01:00 -1.80%
22-Aug Wed JPY JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) 05:00   -3.90%
USD USD MBA Mortgage Applications 11:00 -4.50%
CAD CAD Retail Sales (MoM) 12:30 0.10% 0.30%
CAD CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) 12:30 0.30% 0.50%
USD USD Existing Home Sales 14:00 4.50M 4.37M
USD USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) 14:00 3.00% -5.40%
USD USD Fed Releases Minutes from August 1 FOMC Meeting 18:00
JPY JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) 23:50 ¥170.1B
JPY JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) 23:50 -¥23.2B
JPY JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) 23:50 -¥141.0B
JPY JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) 23:50 -¥68.1B
AUD AUD CBAHIA House Affordability 01:00 61.80
CNY CNY Conference Board China July Leading Economic Index 02:00
CNY CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI 02:30 49.30
USD USD Fed’s Evans holds press briefing in Beijing 03:30
23-Aug Thu CHF CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) 06:00   2.25B
EUR EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) 06:00 0.30% 0.30%
EUR EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) 06:00 0.50% 0.50%
EUR EUR German Domestic Demand 06:00 -0.30%
EUR EUR German Capital Investment 06:00 -1.50% -1.10%
EUR EUR German Imports 06:00 1.00% 0.00%
EUR EUR German Private Consumption 06:00 0.20% 0.40%
CHF CHF Exports (MoM) 06:00 0.50% -2.60%
CHF CHF Imports (MoM) 06:00 -3.10%
EUR EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) 06:00 1.00% 1.00%
EUR EUR German Exports 06:00 1.20% 1.70%
EUR EUR German Government Spending 06:00 0.20% 0.20%
EUR EUR German Construction Investment 06:00 2.00% -1.30%
EUR EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing 07:00 43.80 43.40
EUR EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services 07:00 50.10 50.00
EUR EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing 07:30 43.50 43.00
EUR EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services 07:30 50.10 50.30
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite 08:00 46.50 46.50
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services 08:00 47.70 47.90
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing 08:00 44.20 44.00
GBP GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase 08:30 26269.00
GBP GBP CBI Reported Sales 10:00 15.00 11.00
USD USD Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 365K 366K
USD USD Continuing Claims 12:30 3305K
USD USD Markit US PMI Preliminary 12:58
USD USD New Home Sales (MoM) 14:00 3.40% -8.40%
USD USD House Price Purchase Index (QoQ) 14:00 0.60%
EUR EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence 14:00 -22.00 -21.50
USD USD New Home Sales 14:00 362K 350K
USD USD House Price Index (MoM) 14:00 0.50% 0.80%
USD USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 14:30 20.00
NZD NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) 22:45 -47M 331M
NZD NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) 22:45 -647M -747M
NZD NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) 22:45 3.78B 4.20B
NZD NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) 22:45 3.76B 3.87B
JPY JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) 23:50 -0.20% -0.30%
AUD AUD Conference Board Leading Index 00:00 0.40%
JPY JPY Cabinet Office Monthly Economic Report
EUR EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) 0.90% -1.50%
EUR EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) 1.40% 1.30%
CNY CNY MNI August Flash Business Sentiment Indicator 01:35
24-Aug Fri JPY JPY BOJ Governor Shirakawa to Hold Press Conference 07:45    
GBP GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) 08:30 -0.50% -0.70%
GBP GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 08:30 -0.60% -0.80%
GBP GBP Private Consumption 08:30 -0.10%
GBP GBP Government Spending 08:30 1.90%
GBP GBP Gross Fixed Capital Formation 08:30 1.90%
GBP GBP Exports 08:30 -1.70%
GBP GBP Imports 08:30 -0.30%
GBP GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) 08:30 1.90%
GBP GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) 08:30 14.80%
GBP GBP Index of Services (MoM) 08:30 -1.80% 0.90%
GBP GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) 08:30 0.00% 0.50%
USD USD Durable Goods Orders 12:30 2.00% 1.60%
USD USD Durables Ex Transportation 12:30 0.50% -1.10%
USD USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 12:30 -1.40%
USD USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 12:30 1.20%

Morning Update: 8/16/2012

The stock market indices had another somewhat volatile day, and closed near the flatline again with mixed results. They are still consolidating, although the consolidation now comes above the previous points of resistance, so it could be considered positive. They had an early run in the market up to resistance, and then an afternoon dip. The morning lows held on both exchanges, and then the market snapped back to the declining tops line only to back off again in the last hour.The stock market had a volatile day today, but  the indices closing mixed near the flat line.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 7.36 at 13,164.78, but the S&P 500 was up 1.60 at 1405.53, and the Nasdaq 100 was up 7.68 at 2735.47.

Advance-declines were 19 to 11 positive on New York Stock Exchange, and 17 to 7 positive on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was better than 3 to 2 positive on New York, with total volume of a very light 490 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.5 billion, and had a 2 to 1 positive volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were up in the morning, down in the afternoon, back up late in the day, and then they pulled back in the last hour, to close quite low on the session.

Thursday, August 16

Economics 
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – consensus 364K, prior 361K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3300K, prior 3332K
08:30 Housing Starts – consensus 757K, prior 760K
08:30 Building Permits – consensus 765K, prior 755K
10:00 Philadelphia Fed – consensus -5.0, prior -12.9
11:00 Fed buying $1.5b-$2b Treasuries in 25 to 30-year range
08:30 GBP Retail Sales
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI

Earnings
Before:
Sear’s Holdings (SHLD) EPS -86c
Wal-Mart (WMT) EPS $1.17
Ross Stores (ROST) EPS 81c
After:
Gap (GPS) EPS 48c
Dollar Tree (DLTR) EPS 47c
Aeropostale (ARO) EPS 2c

The CPI came in flat versus an expected rise of 0.2%. Industrial production rose 0.6%, more than the consensus 0.5%. The Empire State index was – 5.85, much worse than the expected 7.00. The home price index was 37, more than the anticipated 35. Oil inventories dropped 3.7 million barrels, exactly the same as last week. On Thursday we will get housing starts, jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed survey.