Morning Update: 9/27/2012

The stock market indices had a very steep, sharp decline early on today. That cracked the trendline on the Nasdaq 100, but not so on the S&P 500. Key support at 1440 was taken out, and it reached as low as 1430 today before bouncing, but 1440 on the way up proved futile. The indices rolled over into the close after a 5-wave technical snapback midday. They then backed off in a falling wedge at the end of the day.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 44.04 at 13,413.51, just 7 points off the low. The S&P 500 was down 8.27 at 1433.32, less than 2 points off the low. The Nasdaq 100 was down 22.90 at 2781.63, about 13 points off the low.

Advance-declines were 3 to 2 negative on New York Stock Exchange, and 3 to 2 negative on Nasdaq as well. Up/down volume was a little less than 2 to 1 negative on New York, with total volume of 675 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1.7 billion, and had a 2 to 1 negative volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were down very sharply in the morning, until midmorning, when they rallied back in the afternoon to take back about half their losses, but then rolled over into the close to finish with substantial losses and suddenly negative technical.

Institutional

 

Thursday, September 27

Economics
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – consensus 375K, prior 382K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3278K, prior 3272K
08:30 GDP QoQ (Annualized) – consensus 1.7%, prior 1.7%
08:30 GDP Price Index – consensus 1.6%, prior 1.6%
08:30 Personal Consumption – consensus 1.7%, prior 1.7%
08:30 Core PCE – consensus 1.8%, prior 1.8%
08:30 Durable Goods – consensus -4.7%, prior 4.1%
08:30 Durable Goods ex Transports – consensus 0.3%, prior -0.4%
08:30 Cap Goods Orders – consensus 0.5%, prior -3.4%
11:00 Fed to sell $7b-$8b notes in 3-year range
1:00 Treasury selling $29b 7-year notes
CNY Leading Index
01:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence
01:30 CNY Industrial Profits
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change
08:30 GBP GDP
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence
23:15 JPY Jobless Rate
23:30 JPY Household Spending
23:50 JPY Industrial Production

Earnings

Before:
Discover Financial (DFS) EPS $1.04
After:
Nike (NKE) EPS $1.13
Global Payments (GPN) EPS 85c
Micron Tech (MU) EPS -22c

New home sales were 373,000, less than the expected 380,000. Oil inventories dropped 2.4 million. Last week they rose 8.5 million. On Thursday we will get durable goods, GDP, jobless claims and pending home sales.

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