Morning Update: 9/25/2012

The stock market indices started out with sharp declines today. They bounced around, and then made a mid-afternoon pullback that held support. When that occurred, they rallied to new snapback highs intraday, making new session highs. They were unable to get above that level, which was the declining topsline in the last two sessions, and pulled back into the close to finish with losses on the day.  The stock market indices had a strange session after a very steep opening gap down, and then further downside movement….

Net on the day, the Dow was down just 20.55 at 13,558.92, the S&P 500 down 3.26 at 1456.89, and the Nasdaq 100 down 17.66 at 2843.98.

It was basically a down morning, consolidation, retest bounce, and pullback close.

Advance-declines were 3 to 2 negative on New York Stock Exchange, and about 13 to 11 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was 3 to 2 negative on New York, with total volume of 600 million shares. Nasdaq traded over 1 2/3 billion, and had a 3 to 1 negative volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices gapped down big time at the opening, bounced around, and when the S&P 500 snapped back to test resistance at 14.58, which is a new snapback high, the NDX was unable to do so. That signaled an orderly pullback retracement and retest, which was successful. That resulted in an afternoon rally, but that failed at the declining topsline, and then they pulled back into the close.

Net-net the indices had a negative start to the week, but they still haven’t broken key-support. We’ll be watching 2833-35 NDX and 1450-52 S&P 500 zones.

Those are the levels to keep an eye on early this week.


Tuesday, September 25

09:00 S&P/Case Schiller City MoM – consensus 0.70%, prior 0.94%
09:00 S&P/Case Schiller Composite YoY – consensus 1.0%%, prior 0.50%
10:00 Consumer Confidence – consensus 63.0, prior 60.6
10:00 Richmond Fed – consensus -6, prior -9
10:00 House Price Index – consensus 0.5%, prior 0.7%
11:00 Fed purchasing $4.5b-5.5b bonds in 8 to 10-year range
1:00 US to sell $35b 2-year notes
GBP Home Prices
06:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence
06:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator
12:30 CAD Retail Sales
22:45 NZD Trade Balance
08:30 Spain to sell bills
10:00 Italy to sell inflation-linked bonds

Factset Research (FDS) EPS $1.17
Carnival (CCL) EPS $1.44

The Dallas Mfg. Survey came in at a minus 0.9. Less than the consensus plus 0.5. On Tuesday we will get the Case Shiller home price index and consumer confidence.



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