Morning Update: 6/27/2012

The stock market indices had a positive session, although they started out with a gap up, ran up to resistance, came down hard, and held support. They then rallied in a 5-wave advance into key overhead resistance at the 2555-6 area on the Nasdaq 100, and the 1322-24 zone on the S&P 500. They tried to get through three times in the afternoon, but couldn’t do so, rolled over in the last 10 minutes, and backed off the gains for the day. Still, they ended positive on the session. Net on the day, the Dow was up 32.01 at 12,534.67, the S&P 500 up 6.28 at 1320 even, and the Nasdaq 100 up 16.30 at 2549.84.Advance-declines were a little less than 2 to 1 positive on New York, and Nasdaq had about 1375 up and 1084 down, with a plurality of about 290 issues. Up/down volume was almost 2 to 1 positive on New York, total volume 678 million. Nasdaq traded 1.55 billion, and had a 3 to 2 positive volume ratio.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were up early to resistance, rolled over to test support, and then moved in a 5-wave advance from late morning to late afternoon before backing off to key resistance late in the day.

Nevertheless, there were gains on the day, and after yesterday’s late hard hit, we’ll take it. However, I will say, the down trend has now had 4 waves off the top, and we may very well see one more before they end this.

Let’s see how it goes tomorrow.


Wednesday, June 27

7:00 am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.8%
8:30 am: Durable Goods Orders, consensus 0.5%, prior 0.0%
8:30 am: Durables Ex-Transportation, consensus 0.7%, prior -0.9%
8:30 am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, consensus 0.6%, prior -1.9%
10:00 am: Pending Home Sales M/m, consensus 1.3%, prior -5.5%
11:00 am: Fed to purchase $1.5b-2.2b notes in 25 to 30-year range
1:00 pm: U.S. to sell 5-year notes
8:30 GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase
12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index
23:15 JPY Nomura Manufacturing Purchasing Manager
23:30 JPY Retail Trade
23:50 JPY Large Retailers’ Sales

Commercial Metals (CMC) EPS 37c, revs 2.15
General Mills (GIS) EPS 59c, revs 4.11B
Lennar (LEN) EPS 17c, revs 906M
McCormick (MKC) EPS EPS 61c, revs 968M
Monsanto (MON) EPS $1.60, revs 4.01B
No major earnings reports

Consumer confidence came in at 62.0. Last month it was 64.9. The Case Shiller home price index dropped 1.91% year over year. The consensus was for a drop of 2.3%. On Wednesday we will get durable goods, pending home sales and oil inventories.


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