Morning Update: 6/21/2012

The stock market had a spectacularly volatile day, with the indices all over the place. In the morning, they backed and filled before the FOMC statement that caused the market to dip sharply, but it held support, and they rallied back very sharply when the news was interpreted as positive. They went to nominal new highs on the Nasdaq 100, but did not confirm on the S&P 500. Then they rolled over in a mini, 7-wave decline that nearly tested the lows, but late in the day, they snapped back sharply to put the NDX back in the plus column. The S&P 500 and Dow blue chips remain with minor losses today. Net of the day, the Dow was down 12.94 at 12,824.39, about 80 points off its low and about 50 points off its high, so you can see the big swing today. The S&P 500 was down 2.29 at 1355.39, only 6 points off its high, but 9 points off the low. The Nasdaq 100, however, was up 2.50 at 2623.33, 10 points off the high and 20 points off the low.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were mixed in the morning, plunged midday, snapped back with abandoned to new session highs, and then rolled over to retest the lows before bouncing late in the session.

It was a very volatile day, and net-net it was a mixed session.

Instrument Strategy Market pos. Quantity Entry price Exit price Profit
ES 09-12 Responsive Trade Balance Extreme Short 1 1346.25 1344.75 70.5
GC 08-12 Long 2 1602.9 1603.6 131
CL 07-12 Long 1 81.63 81.64 5.5
6A 09-12 Initiative Trade Balance Extreme Long 1 1.0065 1.0127 615.5
6A 09-12 Initiative Trade Balance Extreme Long 2 1.0065 1.0113 951
ES 09-12 Responsive Trade Balance Extreme Long 1 1349.25 1348.5 -42
ES 09-12 Long 2 1350 1348.5 -159
FDAX 09-12 Responsive Trade Balance Extreme Short 2 6379.5 6387 -384
FDAX 09-12 Responsive Trade Balance Extreme Short 1 6379.5 6387 -192

Thursday, June 21

Economics
08:30 Initial Jobless Claims – consensus 380K, prior 386K
08:30 Continuing Claims – consensus 3275K, prior 3278K
08:58 Markit Preliminary US PMI – consensus 53.0, prior 53.9
10:00 Philadelphia Fed – consensus 0.0, prior -5.8
10:00 Existing Home Sales – consensus 4.57M, prior 4.62M
10:00 House Price Index – consensus 0.4%, prior 1.8%
10:00 Leading Indicators – consensus 0.1%, prior -0.1%
11:00 Fed to purchase $4.25b-5.25b in 6 to 8-year bonds
11:30 U.S. to sell $7b in 30-yr TIPS
06:00 CHF Trade Balance
07:15 CHF Industrial Production
07:30 EUR German PMI
08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI
08:30 GBP Retail Sales
12:30 CAD Leading Indicators
14:00 EUR Consumer Confidence
9:30 Spain to sell bonds
10:00 France to sell bonds/notes
10:30 U.K. to sell bonds

Earnings
Before:
CarMax (KMX) EPS 54c, revs $2.85B
ConAgra (CAG) EPS 50c, revs $3.40B
Rite Aid (RAD) EPS -5c, revs $6.47B
After: 
Oracle (ORCL) EPS 78c, revs $10.88B

Oil inventories rose 2.9 million barrels, compared to last week’s drop of 200,000. On Thursday we will get initial claims, existing home sales and The Philadelphia Fed Survey.

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