Morning Update: 3/1/2012

The stock market indices suffered losses today, although they opened higher and ran up to new multi-month and multi-year highs in some cases. The Nasdaq 100 reached 2645 and the Nasdaq Composite near 3000, while the S&P 500 hit 1378. They then sold off sharply, bounced mid-morning, and then backed and filled in what looked like corrective wedges. By early afternoon, when they hadn’t broken out and followed through, they rolled over hard into the close, but they did bounce in the last 10-15 minutes.

Net on the day, the Dow was down 53.05 at 12,952.07, with a high of 13,055.75. So it closed more than 100 points off the high. The S&P 500 was down 6.50 at 1365.68, 13 points off its high, and the Nasdaq 100 down 10.36 at 2623.10, 22 points off its high.

It was a negative reversal day, for sure, with technicals confirming.

The technicals were about 2 to 1 negative on declines over advances on the New York Stock Exchange, and nearly 3 to 1 negative on Nasdaq. It was a definitive down day, and we may have begun a pullback here. We’ll have to see if we get any downside follow-through tomorrow.

Up/down volume was a little less than 2 1/2 to 1 negative, with nearly 20 million up and 80 million down on more than 1 billion shares today on New York. Total volume increased on the downside today, and that’s never a good thing. Nasdaq traded 2.1 billion shares and had a 3 to 1 negative volume ratio, with 1.6 billion down and 500 million up.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices were up early, but that was it, as they came down in hard, 3-wave declines today, bouncing off the session lows in the last 15 minutes to prevent them from closing at the lows for the day.

Nevertheless, it was a negative day, and we’ll see what that translates into, and whether we get any downside follow-through in the next few days.

I had one trade 6E

  • Balance extreme responsive trade target was met in same session


08:30  USD Initial Jobless Claims 351K 353K 353K
08:30  USD Personal Spending (MoM) 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
08:30  USD Continuing Jobless Claims 3402K 3400K 3404K
08:30  CAD Current Account -10.3B -9.6B -12.3B
08:30  USD Personal Income (MoM) 0.3% 0.6% 0.5%
08:30  USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
08:30  CAD IPPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.2% -0.9%
09:45  USD Bloomberg Consumer Confidence -38.4
10:00  USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 57.2 55.5
10:00  USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
10:00  USD ISM Manufacturing Index 54.6 54.1
10:00  USD Construction Spending (MoM) 1.0% 1.5%
10:30  USD Natural Gas Storage -90B -166B
11:30  USD Chain Store Sales (YoY) 4.8%

Olof Thomas


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